[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 8 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with several C class
flares occurring over the last 24 hours, the greatest a C6. Solar
wind conditions are ambient. Analysis of a faint halo CME observed
on the 6th of October suggests a CME impact early on the 10th
of October. This will be a direct hit, however the CME is small.
Solar flare activity is expected to remain at low levels for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22111101
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 4 22111211
Alice Springs 3 22111101
Culgoora 3 2111110-
Gingin 3 11111211
Camden 4 22211101
Canberra 3 12111101
Launceston 4 12211211
Hobart 3 12211110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 12210100
Casey 9 34321111
Mawson 12 14212234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are at Quiet levels. An expected
CME impact early on the 10th of October may cause a brief Unsettled
to Active period followed by Unsettled conditions for several
hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUF values for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 21700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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