[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 13 issued 2352 UT on 02 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 3 09:52:39 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day 02 October. The
largest flare (C1.2-class) for the period is in progress at this
time (2330UT). It is the only C-class flare for the last 24 hours.
A solar wind shock was observed at 0124UT due to arrival of
expected CME, jumping from approximately 400 km/s to 600 km/s.
The solar wind remains elevated but is expected to steadily decline
over the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +20/-29 nT, falling to -29nT at
02/0425UT. The Proton/Polar Cap Absorption event ended at 02/0510UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 26 56432332
Cocos Island 21 55332332
Darwin 26 56432323
Townsville 27 56433332
Learmonth 34 66432443
Alice Springs 26 56432323
Culgoora 25 56432322
Gingin 34 66432443
Camden 26 56432332
Canberra 24 56332322
Hobart 39 67432432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 41 57534433
Casey 51 67553444
Mawson 176 99842386
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 82 (Minor storm)
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 18 (Quiet)
Gingin 112 (Major storm)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 0000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
04 Oct 6 Quiet
05 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 2 October and
is current for 2-4 Oct. The geomagnetic activity went from Quiet
to Major Storm levels upon arrival of the coronal mass ejection.
The geomagnetic storm began at 02/0210UT and reached Major Storm
levels at 02/0530UT. Activity has steadily decrease to Unsettled
levels at this time. Expect geomagnetic activity to be Unsettled
to Quiet over the next 24 hours with the possibility of isolated
periods of Active to Minor storm levels if Bz returns southward.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0450UT 30/09, Ended at 0440UT 02/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
04 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 24 was issued
on 2 October and is current for 3-4 Oct. Noted enhanced to normal
HF conditions during local daytime hours with minor depressions
during local night time hours in the Australian regions due to
geomagnetic storm early in the UT day. Expect a return to near
predicted MUF values today as the ionosphere recovers.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 38800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list