[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 13 issued 2350 UT on 01 Oct 2013

Wed Oct 2 09:50:01 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 107/57

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 01 October. 
Active region 1855(S13E30) is subflaring, however no significant 
flares are expected from this region. Expect Very Low flare activity 
over the next 3 days. The solar wind increased from 250 to 380km/s 
over the last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +/-7 nT. ACE EPAM data indicates 
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 01/0720UT, which 
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 
24-36 hours. This energetic ion enhancement is due to 35 degree 
erupting filament late on 29 September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212122
      Cocos Island         4   02212111
      Darwin               5   21212112
      Townsville           6   12212222
      Learmonth            5   12212212
      Alice Springs        4   11212112
      Culgoora             5   11212122
      Gingin               4   11212112
      Camden               5   11212122
      Canberra             5   11212122
      Hobart               6   31212122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   00101012
      Casey               18   33433433
      Mawson              14   21113245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    16    Quiet to Minor Storm
03 Oct    50    Storm Levels
04 Oct    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 30 September 
and is current for 1-3 Oct. The geomagnetic activity was mostly 
Quiet over the UT day 01 October. Expect geomagnetic activity 
to be mostly Quiet today, however late in the UT day, 02 October, 
storm levels possible depending on CME arrival time. On 03-04 
October expect possible Minor Storm to Major Storm levels depending 
on the interplanetary magnetic field orientation and mass of 
erupting filament arriving at Earth. Polar Cap Absorption in 
progress due to the polar regions be bombarded by high energy 
protons. Presently 10 MeV proton flux is above event threshold 
level, although it is beginning a steady decline and now below 
100 PFU.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 30 09 2013 1450UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
03 Oct      Poor           Poor           Poor
04 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: PCA in progress.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Oct    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Australian region 
01 October. Expect similar conditions today, 02 October. On 03-04 
October expect some significant depressions due to impending 
geomagnetic storm.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 255 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    22100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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