[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 13 issued 2329 UT on 28 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 29 09:29:59 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Very
Low over the next few days. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
during 28 May. Solar wind speeds declined slowly from approximately
800 km/s down to 600 km/s during 28 May. The IMF Bz component
remained predominantly between +- 5nT during 28 May. Solar wind
speeds are expected to continue to decline for 29 and 30 May
then increase during 31 May as a coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22221101
Cocos Island 4 22221100
Darwin 6 32221111
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 5 23222100
Alice Springs 4 22221100
Culgoora 5 22321101
Gingin 4 22222100
Camden 7 33321101
Canberra 3 22220100
Hobart 7 22332200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 9 23342110
Casey 12 33432311
Mawson 30 56542124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 2313 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 5 Quiet
30 May 5 Quiet
31 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for 29 and 30 May, then increase during 31 May as a coronal
hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 29 and
30 May with slightly degraded conditions at times. More significantly
degraded conditions are expected from 31 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 29 and
30 May with isolated slight depression at times. More significant
depressions are expected from 31 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 690 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 489000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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