[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 13 issued 2351 UT on 29 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 30 09:51:52 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed during
29 May. Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Very Low
for 30 May with the chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed during 29 May. Solar wind speeds continued
to decline during 29 May from approximately 600 km/s down to
400 km/s. The IMF Bz remained predominantly northward during
29 May. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase during the
latter half of 31 May and into 1 June as a coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211112
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 0 --000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12211011
Mawson 4 22100003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3322 1201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 4 Quiet
31 May 15 Mostly Unsettled to Active with the chance of
Minor Storm periods at high latitudes in the
latter half of the UT day
01 Jun 12 Mostly Unsettled with the chance of Active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for 30 May, then increase during the latter half of 31
May as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. There
is the possibility of Minor Storm periods at high latitudes during
the latter half of 31 May and into 1 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 30 and
31 May with slightly degraded conditions at times particularly
during the latter half of 31 May UT. More significantly degraded
conditions are expected for 1 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jun 55 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 30 and
31 May with isolated slight depression at times, particularly
in the latter half of 31 May UT. More significant depressions
are possible for 1 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 715 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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