[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 13 issued 2332 UT on 27 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 28 09:32:00 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. Solar wind speed
varied between 620 km/s to 800 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +5/-5 nT for most parts
of the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated M-class
flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 10 22233232
Cocos Island 6 22222121
Darwin 12 33233232
Townsville 12 23233233
Learmonth 11 23233232
Alice Springs 8 22233122
Culgoora 9 22233222
Gingin 10 22233232
Camden 10 23233132
Canberra 6 12132121
Hobart 10 22243222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 21 13255342
Casey 15 33333243
Mawson 47 45433674
Davis 16 3342----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 19 NA
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 5 Quiet
30 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods today. Quiet to unsettled conditions
on 28 and mostly quiet conditions on 29 and 30 May may be expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day on low latitudes.
Near predicted monthly values to mild MUF depressions observed
on high and some mid latitude locations. Minor MUF depressions
possible on high and at times on some mid latitude locations
on 28 May. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 29 and 30
May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day for IPS Cocos
Island, Niue and Darwin. Near predicted monthly values to mild
MUF depressions observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions. Minor MUF
depressions possible in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 28 May. Mostly
normal HF conditions expected for 29 and 30 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 38000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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