[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 13 issued 2332 UT on 27 May 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 28 09:32:00 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. Solar wind speed 
varied between 620 km/s to 800 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +5/-5 nT for most parts 
of the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next three days with some possibility of isolated M-class 
flare.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated active periods

Estimated Indices 27 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22233232
      Cocos Island         6   22222121
      Darwin              12   33233232
      Townsville          12   23233233
      Learmonth           11   23233232
      Alice Springs        8   22233122
      Culgoora             9   22233222
      Gingin              10   22233232
      Camden              10   23233132
      Canberra             6   12132121
      Hobart              10   22243222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
      Macquarie Island    21   13255342
      Casey               15   33333243
      Mawson              47   45433674
      Davis               16   3342----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             19   NA     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled
29 May     5    Quiet
30 May     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
with isolated active periods today. Quiet to unsettled conditions 
on 28 and mostly quiet conditions on 29 and 30 May may be expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day on low latitudes. 
Near predicted monthly values to mild MUF depressions observed 
on high and some mid latitude locations. Minor MUF depressions 
possible on high and at times on some mid latitude locations 
on 28 May. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 29 and 30 
May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
29 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
30 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day for IPS Cocos 
Island, Niue and Darwin. Near predicted monthly values to mild 
MUF depressions observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions. Minor MUF 
depressions possible in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 28 May. Mostly 
normal HF conditions expected for 29 and 30 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: NA

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 657 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    38000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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