[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 13 issued 2357 UT on 22 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 23 09:57:03 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2355UT/22 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.0 1335UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was High during 22 May with an M5-flare
observed at 1332 UT from solar region 1745 located towards the
west limb. An impressive CME observed in association with this
event is expected to have a glancing impact at Earth in the latter
half of the UT day of 24 May. Energetic particles have also been
observed in association with this event and the 10 MeV protons
are presently above the S2-level. The 100 MeV protons are presently
above 1pfu. Further M-class flare activity is possible of the
next few days. Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past
24 hours from approximately 500 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to increase during the latter half of the UT day of 24 May. ACE
solar wind data presently appears to be contaminated due to the
energetic particle event presently in progress.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Cocos Island 6 21222221
Darwin 10 22223332
Townsville 10 32223232
Learmonth 10 22223332
Alice Springs 7 21223222
Culgoora 7 22223221
Gingin 11 32223332
Camden 7 21223221
Canberra 6 21123221
Hobart 7 21223221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 14 21154321
Casey 12 33223233
Mawson 32 54424436
Davis 19 433-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2222 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 20 Initially Quiet to Unsettled with storm periods
possible in the latter half of the UT day.
25 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled during 22
May. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled
for 23 May and the first half of the UT day of 24 May. Activity
is expected to increase in the latter half of the UT day of 24
May due to the anticipated glancing impact of the CME associated
with the M5-flare observed during 22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
24 May Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
25 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 22 May.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for 23-24 May with degraded
conditions expected 25 May as the result of anticipated increased
geomagnetic activity. SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly
degraded conditions are expected at high latitudes due to a PCA
event likely to remain in progress for the next couple of days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 40 Depressed 10-20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 22 May.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for 23-24 May with degraded
conditions expected 25 May as the result of anticipated increased
geomagnetic activity. SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly
degraded conditions are expected at high latitudes due to a PCA
event likely to remain in progress for the next couple of days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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