[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 13 issued 2353 UT on 23 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 24 09:53:12 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with just
C-class activity, the largest event being a C3.9 at 1450UT from
region 1756. Further M-class flare activity is possible of the
next few days. Of the energetic particles associated with the
M5 flare from 22May, the 10MeV protons remain above the threshold
and are expect to remain so for the next 24-48 hours. Bz ranged
between +/-5nT with no significant southward periods. Solar wind
speed at the time of this report was ~500km/s and an expected
increase is due within the next 12-24 hours with the arrival
of a glancing blow CME from the recent M5 flare. It should be
noted that over the last 24 hours ACE solar wind data appears
contaminated due to the elevated energetic particles from the
recent CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12121122
Cocos Island 4 11122111
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 6 22122122
Alice Springs 5 12121122
Culgoora 5 12221121
Gingin 5 22121121
Camden 5 12122122
Canberra 2 -2020011
Hobart 4 11121121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 3 11122011
Casey 18 34433333
Mawson 26 46333244
Davis 15 3-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 20 Initially Quiet to Unsettled with storm periods
possible in the latter half of the UT day.
25 May 15 Unsettled to Active
26 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 May and is
current for 23-25 May. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the
last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
Quiet to Unsettled the first half of the UT day of 24 May. Activity
is expected to increase in the latter half of the UT day for
the 24May to Active levels due to the anticipated glancing impact
of the CME associated with the recent M5-flare. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for 25May-26May with possible Active
periods for 25May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 22 May.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with
possible degraded conditions 25 May due to increased geomagnetic
activity. SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly
degraded conditions are expected at high latitudes due to a PCA
event likely to remain in progress for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 May 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 23
May and is current for 23-24 May. Mostly normal conditions were
observed during 22 May, with enhanced MUFs observed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Mostly normal
conditions are expected for 24 May with degraded conditions expected
25May and 26May as the result of anticipated increased geomagnetic
activity. SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly
degraded conditions are expected at high latitudes due to a PCA
event likely to remain in progress for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 48400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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