[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 13 issued 2351 UT on 20 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 21 09:51:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0526UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during 20 May, with an M1-flare
appearing to originate from the east limb and multiple C-class
flares from region 1748. Region 1748 still remains the most complex
and has the potential for further C and M-class flare activity.
CME activity observed during 20 May is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds remained predominantly below 450 km/s during
20 May with the IMF remaining predominantly northward.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21112221
Cocos Island 4 21111121
Darwin 5 22102222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 31012221
Alice Springs 4 21102221
Culgoora 4 21111221
Gingin 4 22002121
Camden 4 22102210
Canberra 1 11001110
Hobart 4 11112221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 2 10011210
Casey 8 33212222
Mawson 15 33201254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 4232 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 20 May with some
minor activity observed at high latitudes. The impacts of the
CME that arrived late on 19 May were reduced due to the predominant
northward polarity of the IMF. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels
are expected for the next few days with the chance of isolated
Active periods at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 20 May.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days with
the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued
on 18 May and is current for 20-21 May. Mostly normal conditions
were observed during 20 May. Mostly normal conditions are expected
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 63100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list