[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 20 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C9.9 from an un-numbered region on the east limb at 1750UT the
largest flare of the period. Previously highly active region
AR1748 has now declined to just 60mil in size, but remains a
beta-gamma. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 2220UT
on 19 May indicating the later than expected arrival of the CME
from 17-May. The solar wind speed jumped to 450km/s, the total
field to above 15nT, and density to 25/cm3. At the time of this
report, the IMF remains northwards within the sheath of the CME.
Proton flux (>10MeV) at geosynchronous orbit fell back below
event level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 7 21322212
Cocos Island 7 31222212
Darwin 8 22312213
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 8 22323212
Alice Springs 5 21312210
Culgoora 6 21312212
Gingin 9 32223321
Camden 6 21321212
Canberra 4 20311201
Hobart 8 -1332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 22 31554412
Casey 10 34311212
Mawson 20 53422424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 4643 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 25 Active
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 18 May and is
current for 19-20 May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. The CME from 17-May expected to arrive
midday yesterday was detected at the ACE spacecraft at 2220UT,
and has not yet produced any geomagnetic disturbance. The associated
shock was relatively weak and the IMF within the sheath is northwards.
The shock is expected to produce a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic
field within the next half an hour (near 2330UT). The likely
impact of the CME on the geomagnetic field over the day will
depend on the orientation of the magnetic field within the CME.
Expect Active to Minor Storm conditions for 20-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued
on 18 May and is current for 20-21 May. Mostly normal ionospheric
support observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours.
Degraded HF conditions expected 20-May due to increased geomagnetic
activity, particularly in S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. MUFs
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 20-May, with
overnight depressions for Southern AUS/NZ regions. More widespread
MUF depressions expected from 21-May. Some chance of short wave
fadeouts 20-May due to solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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