[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 19 09:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C6 from region 1748 (N11E11) at 0345UT the largest flare of the
period. The most active region currently on the sun, AR1748,
has declined in magnetic complexity over the period and is now
a beta-gamma magnetic class. M class X-ray flares can be expected
from this region, with isolated X class flares possible. A weak
shock was observed in the solar wind at 0022UT on 18 May with
the arrival of the CME from 15-May. The solar wind speed jumped
to 450km/s and total field to near 15nT after which all parameters
gradually declined over the day. A moderate shock is expected
midday today (19 May) with the arrival of the CME from 17-May.
This event is expected to be larger than yesterday's CME. Proton
flux (>10MeV) at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated but is
in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 14 34333132
Cocos Island 10 33232131
Darwin 11 33233132
Townsville 14 34333232
Learmonth 14 34333132
Alice Springs 10 33223032
Culgoora 10 33233122
Gingin 16 34333242
Camden 13 34333122
Canberra 7 23232021
Hobart 12 24333122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 21 35453221
Casey 15 34333233
Mawson 54 76533265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2321 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 35 Quiet to Minor Storm, with Major Storm periods
overnight
20 May 20 Active
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 18 May and is
current for 19-20 May. Quiet to Active conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. The CME from 15-May arrived early in
the UT day (18-May), producing Active periods with Minor Storm
periods at high latitudes. Modelling of the CME from 17-May suggests
an arrival time near midday (UT) on 19-May, and this event is
likely to have a more significant impact on the geomagnetic field.
Expect Quiet conditions during the first half of the UT day,
increasing to Minor Storm with Major storm periods following
the arrival of a CME around midday UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
20 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued
on 18 May and is current for 20-21 May. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 12 was issued on 18 May and is current for 18-19 May.
Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the AUS/NZ region
for the last 24 hours. MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values during the day 19-May, with a chance of depressed
periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions overnight 19-May. HF conditions
degraded overnight 19-May and more widespread MUF depressions
expected from 20-May due to increased geomagnetic activity. Short
wave fadeouts possible with a chance of isolated M class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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