[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 18 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/-- 0857UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
an M3 from region 1748 (N11E23) at 0857UT the only X-ray flare
of significance. Associated with this event was a Type II/IV
radio sweep and full halo CME. The source location of this event
indicates an impact on Earth is almost certain. Initial SWPC
solar wind modelling estimates an arrival time just after midday
(UT) on May-19. Although small, AR1748 remains a complex spot
region with significant flare potential. Solar activity is expected
to be Moderate for the next 3 days with a chance of isolated
X-class flares. The solar wind speed remains near 400km/s, and
the IMF has been fluctuating within +/-5nT. The CME from the
15-May X-class flare has not yet arrived, although ACE EPAM ions
have increased significantly over the last few hours indicating
the CME may arrive soon. Proton flux (>10MeV) at geosynchronous
orbit remains elevated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22112231
Cocos Island 4 212111--
Darwin 8 22212332
Townsville 11 232233--
Learmonth 5 212121--
Alice Springs 5 221122--
Culgoora 6 11122231
Gingin 3 211111--
Camden 6 12112231
Canberra 4 01112230
Hobart 7 11123231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 5 111321--
Casey 11 232332--
Mawson 15 343233--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 3421 3424
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 15 Unsettled to Active
19 May 35 Active to Minor Storm
20 May 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. The CME from 15-May has not yet arrived, but is
expected to do so early today (18-May), producing Active periods
with Minor Storm periods at high latitudes. Initially modelling
of the CME from 17-May suggests an arrival time near midday on
19-May, and this event is likely to have a more significant impact
on the geomagnetic field, with Major storm periods possible,
particularly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
19 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M and X class flares. A PCA
event is in progress affecting HF communications at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. A PCA event is in progress
affecting HF communications at high latitudes. MUFs expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values during the day 18-May,
with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions
overnight 18-May and into 19-May. Short wave fadeouts possible
with a chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 22800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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