[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 17 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2154UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
a short-duration M1.3 from region 1748 (N11E39) at 2153UT the
only X-ray flare of significance. There was no associated Type
II radio sweep with this event. Coronograph imagery of the event
is pending. AR1748 remains a complex spot region (Dai beta-gamma-delta),
with significant flare potential, although it has decreased in
size to 140mil. AR1745 (N12E01) has also decreased in size (280mil)
and complexity (Cko beta) and has reduced flare potential. Solar
activity is expected to be Moderate for the next 3 days with
a chance of isolated X-class flares. The solar wind speed decreased
steadily over the UT day, and has now dropped below 400km/s.
There have been two sustained periods of southwards-directed
IMF (00-03UT at -5nT, and 16-22UT at -5nT). Proton flux (>10MeV)
at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated. The CME associated
with the 15-May X-class flare is expected to arrive in the second
half of the UT day 17-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 10 23223322
Cocos Island 10 23223322
Darwin 12 34223322
Townsville 14 34323323
Learmonth 11 33223322
Alice Springs 10 23223322
Culgoora 10 23223322
Gingin 9 23213322
Camden 9 23213322
Canberra 6 23112212
Hobart 9 23223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 3 22101111
Casey 13 33323233
Mawson 34 46223356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 1123 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 15 Unsettled, becoming Active overnight
18 May 15 Unsettled to Active
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Unsettled conditions were observed over the last
24 hours, with an isolated Active period 03-06UT in response
to a period of sustained southwards IMF. Quiet-Unsettled conditions
expected for the early part of 17-May. The CME from 15-May is
expected to arrive in the second half of the UT day 17-May, and
may produce Active conditions overnight with Minor Storm periods
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M and X class flares. A PCA
event is in progress affecting HF communications at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 16
May and is current for 16-17 May. Mostly normal ionospheric support
observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. A PCA
event is in progress affecting HF communications at high latitudes.
MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values during
the day 17-May, with a chance of depressed periods for Southern
AUS/NZ regions overnight 17-May and into 18-May. Short wave fadeouts
possible with a chance of isolated M and X flares from solar
active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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