[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 13 issued 2343 UT on 04 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 5 09:43:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 142/96 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels during 4 May and is
expected to be predominantly Low with the chance of M-class flare
activity for 5 May. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery
suggests recent CME activity is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 350-400 km/s during
4 May. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase mildly during
5 May due to a coronal hole and the possible glancing impact
of a CME observed on 2 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11211112
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 22212223
Learmonth 6 22222212
Alice Springs 3 11121111
Culgoora 3 11211102
Gingin 3 11111112
Camden 3 11211111
Canberra 2 11210101
Hobart 4 11221211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00220210
Casey 8 13322222
Mawson 24 52221545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2210 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of
isolated Active periods
06 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled periods are expected for the
next few days with the small chance of Active periods during
5 May due to the anticipated arrival of a Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 4
May and is current for 4-5 May. Mostly near predicted monthly
values are expected over the next few days with the chance of
slight depressions on 6 May. SWFs possible over the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 77300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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