[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 13 issued 2355 UT on 03 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 4 09:55:03 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:YELLOW MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1657UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M5.7 1732UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was at High levels during 3 May with
an M1-flare from region 1731 and an M5-flare from region 1739
located towards the NE limb. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite
imagery suggests recent CME activity is not expected to be geoeffective.
Further M-class flare activity is expected over the next few
days. Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 400-450
km/s during 3 May. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
mildly over the next few days due to a coronal hole and the possible
glancing impact of a CME observed on 2 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 6 22121222
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 22121121
Alice Springs 4 22111112
Culgoora 3 11111111
Gingin 4 21111121
Camden 2 12101011
Canberra 1 11100010
Hobart 4 12112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01111000
Casey 8 33311221
Mawson 8 23221232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4422 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of
Active periods
05 May 6 Quiet
06 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled periods are expected for the
next few days with the small chance of Active periods during
4 May due to the anticipated arrival of a Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions are expected for the next few
days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected over
the next few days with the chance of slight depressions on 5
May. SWFs possible over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 81900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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