[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 6 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1756UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during 5 May with an M1.4
flare from AR1739 making it the most active region. There were
also high C flares from AR1739 and low C from AR1734. 6 May activity
is expected to be Low with the continuing chance of Moderate
with reasonable chance of M-class flares from AR1739 and AR1734.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field north-south Bz fluctuated in the
quiescent +/-5nT range, predominantly south till 14UT, favourable
for mild merging with geomagnetic field, and sharp turn north
at 18UT. Solar wind speeds were low 350km/s till 12UT and slowly
increased to moderate 430km/s by 18UT, remaining near there since.
Solar wind speeds are expected to increase mildly during 6 May
due to a coronal hole and the possible glancing impact of a CME
launched on 2 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 6 12213221
Cocos Island 4 11212210
Darwin 9 22223322
Townsville 8 12223322
Learmonth 8 21223321
Alice Springs 6 22113221
Culgoora 5 12113211
Gingin 6 11213221
Camden 5 12113211
Canberra 3 01103210
Hobart 7 11114221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 5 01204100
Casey 8 23323210
Mawson 19 55432210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 10 Unsettled
07 May 6 Quiet
08 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled periods during the day with a brief
Active period at some stations ~14UT due to the prolonged mild
Bz southwards. Unsettled conditions are expected for 6 May due
the late arrival of a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) and
possible glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection launched
2 May may result in brief Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected over
the next few days with the chance of slight depressions on 6
May due to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions from a corotating
interaction region and possible glancing blow from a coronal
mass ejection launched on 2 May. Short wave fadeouts possible
with reasonable chance of M flares from AR1739 and AR1734.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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