[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 22 10:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 2204UT possible lower Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: There was a C3.5 class solar flare at 18:22 UT from
Active Region 1692 located very close to the western limb. A
brief M1.1 class flare is in progress at the time of this report.
However, solar activity is currently expected to decline during
the next 48 hours. Enhanced solar wind speed and Bz southward
conditions during the first half of 21 March may have been due
to the arrival of the weak partial halo CME observed late on
17 March. The solar wind speed was nearly 600 km/s at 01 UT and
has declined to <450 km/s. Bz was nearly -8 nT at 02 UT and it
has trended northward throughout the day. Bz is presently about
+6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 33211112
Darwin 6 33211002
Townsville 12 34322223
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk Island 7 33211112
Culgoora 5 33210101
Camden 5 33210001
Canberra 5 32200---
Hobart 6 33311001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 45411000
Casey 16 55320112
Mawson 38 67523122
Davis 15 3-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2321 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 5 Quiet
24 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled during the first
half of 21 March. Mid-latitude K indices were in the range of
3 to 4 and the Australian Dst index decreased to -82 nT at 04
UT. These unsettled conditions may have occurred because of the
arrival of the weak partial halo CME observed late on 17 March.
The geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the second half
of 21 March and are expected to remain quiet during the next
48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 22
March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to remain near
normal at most locations during the next 48 hours. However, the
10.7 cm solar flux is trending downwards and this suggests the
T index may also decline at some stations. Short wave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 87800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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