[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 23 10:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 21/2204UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: A short duration M1.6 class solar flare from Active
Region 1692 occurred at 22:04 UT on 21 March. A strong Coronal
Mass Ejection was launched toward the west in association with
this flare. LASCO observations show another CME launched at about
02 UT toward the south east. Neither of these CMEs are Earthward
directed. There have been ongoing C and B class solar flares
from Active Region 1692 located on the western limb. Solar activity
is declining and the 10.7 cm solar flux is trending slowly downward.
The solar wind speed has been trending downward and is presently
just under 400 km/s. Bz has been mostly +5 nT though with brief
excursions to -5 nT. The solar wind speed may increase later
in the day due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12111221
Darwin 5 12121222
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 5 12111230
Norfolk Island 4 12111121
Culgoora 4 11111221
Camden 3 12011121
Canberra 2 11011120
Hobart 3 12111120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 00010020
Casey 11 34331122
Mawson 15 23121161
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3441 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 5 Quiet
24 Mar 4 Quiet
25 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet throughout all of
22 March. Mid-latitude K indices were mostly in the range of
0 to 2 and the Australian Dst index has decreased to -10 nT at
the time of this report. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain quiet during the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 23
March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were near normal during 22
March and they are expected to remain near normal at most locations
during the next 48 hours. The 10.7 cm solar flux is still trending
downwards and the T index is expected to weaken as Active Region
1692 disappears behind the western limb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 92300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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