[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 21 10:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: There was a C5.5 class solar flare at 01:02 from Active
Region 1698. There were several other minor C and B class solar
flares throughout 19th March. Solar activity is expected to be
low declining to very low during the next three days. There is
still a small chance of an M class flare before the current cluster
of active regions disappear behind the western limb. Region 1686
(S12) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around
21 Mar. The solar wind speed increased to 700 km/s during 17
UT but has returned to 500 km/s. Bz has been fluctuating between
+3 nT and -3 nT with brief excursions below -5 nT. The partial
halo CME observed late on 17th March may lead to unsettled to
active geomagnetic conditions late today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 22113323
Darwin 7 221122-3
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 10 23223---
Norfolk Island 7 22112223
Culgoora 8 12113323
Camden 9 22113323
Canberra 5 12112222
Hobart 8 22112323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 43313422
Casey 17 44332333
Mawson 26 45223336
Davis 17 34333---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 1022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 12 Unsettled
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The partial halo CME observed late on 17th March may
lead to unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions late today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 21st
of March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions have returned to near normal
at most locations. The 10 cm solar flux is presently trending
downwards. Propagation conditions are not expected to be strongly
enhanced during the next 24 to 48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 33300 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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