[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 16 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0709UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with a long duration
M1 flare from region AR1692(N09E06) peaking around 07UT. A halo
CME was observed in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO
coronagraphs. Combined with STEREO coronagraph imagery, analysis
suggests that the main part of the CME appears to be directed
to the east and north, however a significant amount of the material
is likely directed towards the Earth. This is expected to arrive
late on the 16th of March or early on the 17th UT. A weak shock
was seen in the ACE solar wind data just before 05UT on the 15th
of March, most likely the arrival of the CME observed on the
12th of March. The solar wind speed peaked just below 500 km/s
before diminishing to around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component went
as low as -10nT for less than an hour before swinging northward
for the remainder of the day. More significant solar wind speeds,
potentially up to around 800 km/s, are expected following the
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days, with some chance of
further M class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 14321111
Darwin 8 243-1002
Townsville 9 143211--
Learmonth 10 24322122
Norfolk Island 6 13321111
Culgoora 7 13321112
Camden 7 14320011
Canberra 8 05310001
Hobart 6 14320001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Davis 37 355-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0101 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 15 Quiet to Unsettled, chance of Major Storm late
in the day
17 Mar 60 Storm Levels
18 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 March and
is current for 16-18 Mar. In the IPS magnetometer data for 15
Mar, a weak (22nT) impulse was observed at 0527UT. This was most
likely due to the arrival of the CME observed on the 12th of
March. Magnetic conditions reached Active levels, with some Minor
Storm levels in polar regions, before reducing to mostly Quiet.
A more significant CME impact is expected late on the 16th or
early on the 17th UT, causing up to Major Storm levels of activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Poor Poor Poor
18 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are currently being
observed. Poor conditions at most latitudes, worse at high latitudes,
on the 17th of March UT due to expected significant geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 3 was issued
on 15 March and is current for 17-19 Mar. HF propagation conditions
are normal to good. Significant geomagnetic activity expected
for the 17th of March is likely to reduce the MUFs for HF communication
from midway through the 17th and into the 19th of March. Due
to the significant enhancements currently being seen compared
with the monthly prediction, the depressions compared with the
predicted values may be only around 15%. More significant depressions
are possible, particularly in southern and polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 43900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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