[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 17 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a series of C class
flares, the greatest a C2, produced by region AR1698(S19W53).
A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO-A coronagraph images,
first appearing at 1439UT. This is a front side event but is
directed to the north west and is unlikely to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed as measured by ACE remained steady at around
450km/s over the UT day with the IMF Bz component ranging between
+/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly Low levels
for the next 3 days with some chance of M class activity. The
CME observed on the 15th of March is expected to arrive within
the first half of the UT day on the 17th of March bringing significantly
faster solar wind speeds and density.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 23222212
Darwin 7 23222212
Townsville 7 2322221-
Learmonth 13 33333322
Norfolk Island 5 22222111
Culgoora 7 23222212
Camden 7 23222212
Canberra 4 12212101
Hobart 8 23322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Davis 15 3-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0322 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 45 Minor to Major Storm
18 Mar 20 Active
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 March and
is current for 16-18 Mar. Magnetic conditions have been mostly
Quiet with some Unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to
reach Minor to Major storm levels on the 17th of March UT due
to the expected arrival of a CME observed on the 15th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Fair Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
18 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Fair to poor conditions at most latitudes, worse at
high latitudes, can be expected for the later part of the 17th
of March UT due to expected significant geomagnetic activity.
A PCA event is in progress due to high levels of energetic solar
proton flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 3 was issued
on 15 March and is current for 17-19 Mar. HF propagation conditions
are normal to good. Significant geomagnetic activity expected
for the 17th of March is likely to reduce the MUFs for HF communication
from midway through the 17th and into the 18th of March. Due
to the significant enhancements currently being seen compared
with the monthly prediction, the depressions compared with the
predicted values may be only around 15%. More significant depressions
are possible, particularly in southern and polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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