[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 15 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with a single C2 flare from region
AR1691(N12W37). No new coronal mass ejections were observed.
Solar activity is expected to remain at Low levels for the next
3 days, with a slight chance of isolated M class activity. Solar
wind conditions began the UT day of the 14th of March ambient.
At around 12UT the wind speed began steadily increasing to around
380 km/s at time of writing. This coincided with an increase
in plasma density, total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
strength and the fluctuation envelope of the Bz component of
the IMF from around +/- 3 nT to +/- 7nT. The combination of these
observations is suggestive of the arrival of a very weak corotating
interaction region (CIR). On its own, this would be of little
significance however a glancing blow from the CME observed on
the 12th of March UT is still expected to occur sometime on the
15th of March. The combination of these two factors may lead
to some more significant density, speed and magnetic field effects
in the solar wind over the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet with an
isolated Unsettled period
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12113212
Darwin 6 12113212
Townsville 7 12223212
Learmonth 9 23123322
Norfolk Island 6 22123211
Culgoora 5 12113211
Camden 5 11013212
Canberra 2 01012101
Hobart 3 11012102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Davis 10 23223---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2011 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 16 Active period followed by Unsettled conditions
16 Mar 12 Unsettled
17 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet with an isolated Unsettled
period observed in the hours following 12UT. Mostly Quiet conditions
with possible Unsettled periods are expected up until the anticipated
arrival of the edge of a CME, sometime on the UT day 15th of
March. An isolated Active period followed by Unsettled conditions
are expected following the arrival of this CME. Unsettled conditions
can be expected to remain on the 16th, calming to Quiet to Unsettled
on the 17th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are currently being
observed. Some poorer conditions may be experience in high latitude
regions on the 15th and 16th, largely recovering by the 17th.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good. Some mildly
depressed MUFs may be experienced during local night in polar
and southern regions on the 15th of March UT. Some depressed
periods may also be observed in central Australian latitudes
on the 16th of March UT. MUFs should return to predicted monthly
values or better for all regions by the 17th of March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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