[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 14 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with several C1 class flares.
The most significant event was a C1 flare from region AR1692(N09E27)
beginning late in the UT day yesterday and ending around 0130UT
today. A CME was seen in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The material appears to be largely directed to the East
and is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind conditions
are ambient. Solar activity is expected to remain at Low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 5 22211121
Norfolk Island 2 21110011
Culgoora 2 11111011
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 0 10100000
Hobart 2 21210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Davis 6 22211123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1121 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 5 Quiet
15 Mar 16 Unsettled to Active
16 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Quiet conditions are
expected for the 14th. A glancing blow from a CME is expected
sometime on the 15th, causing an isolated Active period followed
by Unsettled conditions for the remainder of the 15th and the
16th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days. Some poorer conditions may be experience in
high latitude regions on the 15th, largely recovering by the
16th.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good due to
enhanced ionising solar flux and quiet Geomagnetic conditions.
Good conditions are expected to continue for the next day. On
day 2, the 15th of March, variable conditions may be experienced
due to mild geomagnetic activity. MUFs may be depressed at times
in polar and southern regions. MUFs should be around predicted
monthly values or above for all regions on the 16th, with some
chance of depressions if the expected geomagnetic activity it
stronger than anticipated.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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