[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 13 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels. A long duration C2
class X-ray flare occurred, peaking at 1107UT. GONG imagery indicates
this was in association with an erupting filament near region
AR1690(N25W06). A CME was seen in probable association with this
event in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO coronagraphs. The bulk of the
ejected material is directed to the north of the ecliptic but
a glancing blow from this event is likely sometime around the
start of the UT day 15th of March. Solar wind conditions are
ambient. Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21222212
Darwin 6 21212222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 22222322
Norfolk Island 5 21212112
Culgoora 5 21122112
Camden 5 31122111
Canberra 3 10112111
Hobart 5 21113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Davis 10 22324222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2220 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 5 Quiet
14 Mar 5 Quiet
15 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to be
Quiet on the 13th and 14th of March UT. A possible glancing blow
from a CME may cause an isolated Active period followed by Unsettled
conditions on the 15th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days. Some poorer conditions may be experience in
high latitude regions on the 15th.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good due to
enhanced ionising solar flux and quiet Geomagnetic conditions.
Good conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days.
On day 3, the 15th of March, variable conditions may be experienced
due to mild geomagnetic activity. MUFs may be slightly depressed
at times in polar and southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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