[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 12 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity is Low with a single C1 flare occurring
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Multiple
sunspot regions are present on the visible Sun, however none
have significant X-ray flare potential. Major flare activity
is not expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 5 32201111
Townsville 6 32212111
Learmonth 6 23222111
Norfolk Island 4 22111111
Culgoora 5 22211112
Camden 4 32201000
Canberra 2 22200000
Hobart 3 22201000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Davis 7 33221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 5 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
14 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good due to
enhanced ionising solar flux and quiet Geomagnetic conditions.
Good conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 26900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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