[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 11 10:30:36 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to
Low. Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 300-360 km/s
during 10 March and are expected to remain predominantly below
400 km/s for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11110212
Darwin 4 2-110212
Learmonth 6 12121322
Norfolk Island 4 11111212
Culgoora 3 11110212
Camden 2 11000212
Canberra 1 01000101
Hobart 3 12100211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Davis 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2112 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 5 Quiet
12 Mar 5 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for the next few days with the small chance of isolated
Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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