[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 10 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to
Low. Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 320-380 km/s
during 9 March and are expected to remain predominantly below
400 km/s for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22112221
Darwin 6 22112222
Townsville 5 2212221-
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 5 2211221-
Norfolk Island 5 22122121
Gingin 6 2212222-
Camden 4 12112121
Canberra 2 11012110
Hobart 4 12113110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 1001310-
Casey 11 3432221-
Mawson 11 4321232-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 5 Quiet
11 Mar 5 Quiet
12 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for the next few days with the small chance of isolated
Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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