[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 9 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to
Low with the slight chance of Moderate activity. Solar wind speeds
ranged between approximately 300-350 km/s during 8 March and
are expected to remain predominantly below 400 km/s for the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 4 112220--
Learmonth 6 22221221
Alice Springs 2 111110--
Norfolk Island 3 11111111
Gingin 2 111110--
Camden 1 00110011
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 1 10110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Casey 6 133200--
Mawson 5 113120--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 5 Quiet
10 Mar 5 Quiet
11 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for the next few days with the small chance of isolated
Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 35500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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