[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 13 issued 2335 UT on 02 Mar 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 3 10:35:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 111/62 109/59 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 02-Mar, with two C-class flares
from an active region around the East limb. The first of these
(C1.9, 1511 UT) was associated with a eastward-directed CME visible
in SOHO-LASCO imagery, but is not expected to be geoeffective.
Expect Low solar activity 03-Mar, with the chance of further
C-class flares. Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole, but is steadily declining. The IMF Bz remained
mostly within +/-5nT, and is expected to remain relatively stable
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 33312322
Darwin 10 32312323
Townsville 10 33322321
Learmonth 14 33323333
Alice Springs 8 32312320
Norfolk Island 7 22212322
Gingin 12 32322431
Camden 9 23312322
Canberra 7 23202312
Hobart 9 23312322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 33423320
Casey 23 45533331
Mawson 34 64423364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30 5435 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 5 Quiet
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled 02-Mar,
with isolated periods of Active-Minor storm conditions at high
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured at geosynchronous
orbit passed the event level (1000 pfu), and remains elevated.
With the solar wind speed now in decline and low solar wind density,
expect mostly Quiet conditions 03-Mar, with some isolated Unsettled
periods. Periods of Active geomagnetic conditions possible at
high latitudes. Quiet conditions expected days 2 and 3 (04-05
Mar) at all latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed across the region 02-Mar,
as a result of elevated geomagnetic activity 01-Mar, with ongoing
degraded HF conditions at S.Aus/Antarctic locations. MUFs were
again depressed after local dawn 03-Mar at S.Aus latitudes. Expect
mildly depressed conditions 03-Mar, with a gradual strengthening
of the ionosphere over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list