[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 4 10:30:11 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 03-Mar. Expect Very Low 
solar activity 04-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares, 
particularly from a new active region on the east limb. Solar 
wind speed remains elevated (~450 km/s) under the influence of 
a coronal hole, but is declining. The IMF Bz remained mostly 
within +/-5nT 03-Mar and is expected to remain in that range 
04-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth           12   33232233
      Alice Springs        6   22222122
      Norfolk Island       5   22211122
      Gingin               8   22222232
      Camden               5   22221112
      Canberra             4   12121111
      Hobart               5   22221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   23222211
      Casey               17   44432233
      Mawson              22   44423353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             12   4321 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     5    Quiet
05 Mar     5    Quiet
06 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet 03-Mar, with 
isolated Active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2 
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated above 
the 1000 pfu event level. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
expected next three days (04-06 Mar) at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed across the S.Aus region 
03-Mar, and otherwise near predicted monthly values. Expect similar 
conditions 04-Mar with ongoing mild depressions across the S.Aus 
region, and a gradual strengthening of the ionosphere over the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 570 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list