[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 4 10:30:11 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 03-Mar. Expect Very Low
solar activity 04-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares,
particularly from a new active region on the east limb. Solar
wind speed remains elevated (~450 km/s) under the influence of
a coronal hole, but is declining. The IMF Bz remained mostly
within +/-5nT 03-Mar and is expected to remain in that range
04-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 12 33232233
Alice Springs 6 22222122
Norfolk Island 5 22211122
Gingin 8 22222232
Camden 5 22221112
Canberra 4 12121111
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 23222211
Casey 17 44432233
Mawson 22 44423353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 4321 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 5 Quiet
06 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet 03-Mar, with
isolated Active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated above
the 1000 pfu event level. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions
expected next three days (04-06 Mar) at all latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed across the S.Aus region
03-Mar, and otherwise near predicted monthly values. Expect similar
conditions 04-Mar with ongoing mild depressions across the S.Aus
region, and a gradual strengthening of the ionosphere over the
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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