[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 2 10:30:38 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 118/70 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 01-Mar. Expect Very Low
solar activity 02-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares,
particularly from AR1682 and AR1683. Solar wind speed increased
steadily over the UT day under the influence of a coronal hole,
reaching 600km/s at its peak. The IMF Bz remained mostly within
+/-10nT with the exception of a two hour interval of sustained,
moderately southwards orientation (Bz=-15nT) from 0720-0930UT.
Expect relatively stable IMF conditions on a declining solar
wind next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 33344433
Darwin 19 33344433
Townsville 19 333443--
Learmonth 30 33455543
Alice Springs 17 233443--
Norfolk Island 15 33333333
Gingin 28 333455--
Camden 19 33344433
Canberra 13 23234332
Hobart 18 23344433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 42 336555--
Casey 26 355341--
Mawson 42 654632--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1121 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 10 Unsettled, with isolated Active periods at high
latitudes
03 Mar 5 Quiet
04 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Unsettled early in
the UT day as a coronal hole wind stream became geoeffective,
to Active 09-12UT in response to a sustained period of southwards-directed
IMF. Minor Storm periods were observed at high latitudes 09-12UT.
Expect mostly Unsettled conditions 02-Mar with isolated Active
periods at high latitudes, with a return to mostly Quiet conditions
days 2 and 3 (03-04 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 35 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs mostly near predicted values across the
region 01-Mar. Degraded HF conditions observed at
S.Aus/Antarctic locations during active geomagnetic conditions
from 09UT. Moderate MUF depressions observed after dawn 02-Mar
indicating a weakening of ionospheric support across the region.
IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1 March
and is current for 02-Mar only. Expect moderate MUF depressions
02-Mar, particularly in in S.Aus region during the local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 43900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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