[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 13 issued 2329 UT on 28 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 1 10:29:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 28-Feb. Background solar
X-ray flux remains at low levels. Expect Very Low solar activity
01-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares, particularly
from AR1682. Solar wind speed increased over the second half
of the UT day to be near 400km/s at the time of report. The IMF
parameters indicate the arrival of the leading edge of a coronal
hole wind stream late in the UT day 28-Feb. Expect variable IMF
conditions 01-Mar and elevated solar wind speed next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11212122
Darwin 4 21102122
Townsville 7 22222123
Learmonth 7 22212132
Alice Springs 5 11212122
Norfolk Island 5 22111122
Gingin 6 22212122
Camden 4 11201122
Canberra 2 01101012
Hobart 4 11211122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 11221001
Casey 11 33422122
Mawson 10 23213124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 12 Unsettled
02 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes
over the UT day 28-Feb. Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival
of a coronal hole wind stream late in the UT day 28-Feb, expected
to increase geomagnetic activity to mostly Unsettled, with isolated
Active periods today (01-Mar), before a return to mostly Quiet
conditions days 2 and 3 (02-03 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Mar 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs mildly depressed across the region Feb 28, most
notably in S.Aus during the local day. Low level geomagnetic
activity may degrade HF conditions at S.Aus/Antarctic locations
01-Mar and produce moderate MUF depressions from 02-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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