[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 21 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: At least 4 weak C class and 4 strong B class X ray flares
have occurred during the previous 24 hours. The strongest flare
was a C1.9 event with maximum at 09:20 UT from AR 1777 located
near the south east limb. AR 1775 has produced two weak C class
flares and AR 1776 has been crackling with strong B class flares.
AR 1762 (S28) which previously produced a M class flare is due
to return today. Some of the active regions are rotating through
the geoeffective zone and a significant M class flare is possible
during the next 48 hours. STEREO A and B coronagraphs show the
launch of a strong CME at 13 UT. SOHO LASCO C2 images show the
CME expanding toward the south east (as viewed from Earth). This
CME will not be geoeffective. A large coronal hole (CH 573) located
in the northern hemisphere is traversing the central meridian.
The solar wind was disturbed on June 19 and the subsequent high
speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth. During June 20
the solar wind speed increased from about 300 km/s at 01 UT to
about 500 km/s at 22 UT. The solar wind density is elevated at
10 p/cc. IMF Bz has been fluctuating in the range -10 nT to +10
nT. The high speed solar wind stream will continue to effect
Earth during the next 2-3 days.
Region 1762 (S28) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 21 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 21122222
Cocos Island 6 21221222
Darwin 7 12221232
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 9 22232232
Norfolk Island 5 22121121
Culgoora 5 11122222
Camden 5 21122221
Canberra 3 11011121
Hobart 5 11112231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11212221
Casey 7 12221232
Mawson 21 44332254
Davis 12 2333233-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1201 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 20 Active
22 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during June 20, though
more active than during previous days. A high speed solar wind
stream has arrived at Earth and geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be active during June 21. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur
and mostly affect high latitude regions south of Hobart.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15%
above monthly predicted values during June 20. The 10.7 cm solar
flux is forecast to continue to increase during the next 2-3
days and the outlook is for enhanced ionospheric support. However,
a high speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth and a minor
geomagnetic storm may occur. There is a small chance of negative
storm effects depressing ionospheric support during the next
48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
5% to 20% above predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
10% to 30% above predicted monthly values during local day.
Northern Australian Region:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15%
above monthly predicted values during June 20. The 10.7 cm solar
flux is forecast to continue to increase during the next 2-3
days and the outlook is for enhanced ionospheric support. However,
a high speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth and a minor
geomagnetic storm may occur. There is a small chance of negative
storm effects depressing ionospheric support during the next
48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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