[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 20 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: The largest solar flare of June 19 was a C8.4 flare
with maximum output at 09:54 UT. This event was from an active
region located behind the south east limb. AR 1776 produced three
C class flares, including a C3.5 flare, during June 19. AR 1773
produced the remaining C1.5 flare. The impressive AR 1775 has
been stable. AR 1776 is approaching the geoeffective sweet spot.
The large coronal hole located in the northern hemisphere is
traversing the central meridian. SOHO LASCO C2 images show a
succession of CMEs leaving the south west limb commencing at
01 UT on June 19. These CMEs were from an erupting prominence
and are not Earthward pointing. The solar wind speed has been
light but is presently rising toward 320 km/s. The solar wind
density has been about 1-2 p/cc but is presently rising above
10 p/cc. The Bz southward excursions of June 18 ended at about
01 UT on June 19. Bz was predominantly northward during the first
half of June 19 and then started trending southward again during
the second half of the UT day. Bz is presently about -7 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 2 10111111
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 11010021
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 2 11100111
Camden 1 11000111
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 0 00000110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 12111121
Mawson 16 42100163
Davis 6 22211132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 6 Quiet
21 Jun 12 Unsettled
22 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during June 19. Solar
wind disturbances associated with a CME occurring on June 18
may increase geomagnetic activity during the next 48 hours. Fast
solar wind from the large coronal hole located in the northern
hemisphere may also increase geomagnetic activity during the
next 48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
was 123 on June 19 but may increase further as the next major
solar active region continues to rotate around the south east
limb. This may lead to a small increase in ionospheric support
for higher frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
was 123 on June 19 but may increase further as the next major
solar active region continues to rotate around the south east
limb. This may lead to a small increase in ionospheric support
for higher frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 284 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list