[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 19 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Five, low level, C-class flares. Most regions appear
stable although 1773 (N04 E25) has shown continued growth. New
region (N11 E05). SOHO/LASCO images show two CMEs on the east
limb at 0125 UT and 0336 UT. LASCO and STEREO images seem to
indicate they are unlikely to be geo-effective. ACE solar wind
data show the north-south IMF component ranged between +6 and
-5 nT with extended southward periods. The wind speed reached
340 km/s. A northern hemisphere coronal hole has now reached
central meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11101110
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 3 11201111
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 2 11101110
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 2 11101111
Camden 2 11101110
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01001110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 3 11211111
Mawson 11 33311332
Davis 9 13322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1120 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods at higher latitudes
19 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near monthly predicted values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
19, 21-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
08-10, 23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 20%
07-10 UT and depressed to 25% 14-17 UT at Darwin.
Depressed to 20% 03, 11-12 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced to 30% mostly after local midnight.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 45200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list