[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 18 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: There is a cluster of active regions mostly located
in the south east quadrant (AR 1769-1775). AR 1772 produced the
largest flare of June 17, a C1.7 flare with maximum at 08:12
UT. During the early UT day of June 17, AR 1775 produced two
minor C class flares. AR 1775 is developing in complexity and
may produce an M class flare in comming days. Another C class
flare is in progress at the time of this report. A large coronal
hole is located in the northern hemisphere and is approaching
the central meridian. SOHO LASCO C2 images show multiple CMEs
leaving the Sun throughout late June 16 and June 17. By 01 UT
on June 17, a succession of earlier CMEs form a partial halo
towards the east, west and south. The solar wind speed was very
light during June 17, declining from about 340 km/s to 280 km/s
and fluctuating rapidly. The solar wind density is presently
about 1-2 p/cc. Bz has mostly been in the range -3 nT to +3 nT.
The solar wind density and speed are expected to increase late
today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 3 11-30011
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 5 12221112
Learmonth 1 11010000
Norfolk Island 0 01100000
Culgoora 2 11101011
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 2 11201000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00201000
Casey 3 21111111
Mawson 11 24210015
Davis 6 12221123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 6 Quiet
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during June 17 and is
expected to remain quiet for most of today, becoming unsettled
late today and tomorrow. Coronal hole effects may lead to active
geomagnetic conditions later in the week.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
has increased to 124 and is still trending upwards. This may
lead to a small increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
has increased to 124 and is still trending upwards. This may
lead to a small increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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