[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 13 issued 2352 UT on 21 Jun 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 22 09:52:08 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.9    0317UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT day, 
21 June. The largest flare was from active region (AR) 1777 (S15E55) 
at 21/0314UT and was associated with a type IV sweep reported 
from Learmonth Solar Observatory. Note AR 1777 also produced 
a C-class flare on 20 June from east limb. Expect low to moderate 
activity over the next 3 days with active regions 1777, 1776, 
1775, 1772 all capable of producing flares. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery 
showed the CME associated with the M-class flare at 21/0312UT 
and another CME observed on the west limb at 0512 UT. Based on 
STEREO Behind imagery neither CME is expected to be geo-effective. 
The solar wind increased from 500 to 600 km/s during the last 
24 hours due to a coronal hole rotating into a geo-effective 
location. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/_8nT. 
Expect the solar wind to continue to rise to around 700 km/s 
based on previous rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23322222
      Cocos Island         6   22222122
      Darwin               9   23322222
      Townsville          11   23323223
      Learmonth            9   23323122
      Norfolk Island       7   22322112
      Culgoora             9   23322222
      Camden               9   23322222
      Canberra             7   13322112
      Hobart               9   23322222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    19   33552312
      Casey               10   33222223
      Mawson              36   54433137

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   3322 3253     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region during the UT day with isolated cases of Active 
to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes early in the UT day due 
to high speed solar wind effects. Expect the geomagnetic field 
to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days with isolated 
cases of active levels at high latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jun    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jun    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were normal to enhanced in the 
Australian region due to an increase in sunspot activity (EUV). 
Expect these conditions to prevail for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    75900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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