[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 13 issued 2352 UT on 21 Jun 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 22 09:52:08 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0317UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels for the UT day,
21 June. The largest flare was from active region (AR) 1777 (S15E55)
at 21/0314UT and was associated with a type IV sweep reported
from Learmonth Solar Observatory. Note AR 1777 also produced
a C-class flare on 20 June from east limb. Expect low to moderate
activity over the next 3 days with active regions 1777, 1776,
1775, 1772 all capable of producing flares. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
showed the CME associated with the M-class flare at 21/0312UT
and another CME observed on the west limb at 0512 UT. Based on
STEREO Behind imagery neither CME is expected to be geo-effective.
The solar wind increased from 500 to 600 km/s during the last
24 hours due to a coronal hole rotating into a geo-effective
location. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/_8nT.
Expect the solar wind to continue to rise to around 700 km/s
based on previous rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 23322222
Cocos Island 6 22222122
Darwin 9 23322222
Townsville 11 23323223
Learmonth 9 23323122
Norfolk Island 7 22322112
Culgoora 9 23322222
Camden 9 23322222
Canberra 7 13322112
Hobart 9 23322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 19 33552312
Casey 10 33222223
Mawson 36 54433137
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 3322 3253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the
Australian region during the UT day with isolated cases of Active
to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes early in the UT day due
to high speed solar wind effects. Expect the geomagnetic field
to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days with isolated
cases of active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were normal to enhanced in the
Australian region due to an increase in sunspot activity (EUV).
Expect these conditions to prevail for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 75900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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