[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 12 09:30:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Very Low levels. Currently there
are two sunspot groups visible on the solar disc and activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels over the next few days.
Solar wind ranged between 360 and 440 km/s over the last 24 hours
with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranging between
-7/+5 nT. Noted CME on west limb first observed via SOHO LASCO
C2 imagery at 0312 UT 11 June. Based on imagery from LASCO and
STEREO, activity occurred around west limb and will not be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 4 11112121
Townsville 4 11112121
Learmonth 4 11113210
Norfolk Island 2 11012110
Culgoora 3 11112111
Camden 3 01112111
Canberra 0 00002000
Hobart 2 00012111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00022200
Casey 6 22222211
Mawson 9 10113324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3443 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 4 Quiet
13 Jun 4 Quiet
14 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions possible over the next few days in
the Australian region due to low solar EUV levels related to
a low number of active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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