[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 13 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Very Low levels and is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, although there is a slight
chance for a C-class flare from an emerging flux region at S11W18.
Solar wind decreased from 450 to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours
with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranging between
+/-4 nT. SOHO LASCO imagery showed plasma ejections from the
Sun to the north beginning at 0236UT and to the south beginning
at 0500UT and 0912UT. STEREO images indicate these coronal ejections
will not be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 2 1210100-
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 12110000
Norfolk Island 1 11100000
Culgoora 2 21110011
Camden 2 12100001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00200000
Casey 5 23211111
Mawson 10 33322004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1001 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 4 Quiet
14 Jun 4 Quiet
15 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions possible over the next few days in
the north Australian region due to low solar EUV levels related
to a low number of active regions, otherwise expect near predicted
monthly MUF values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 86100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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