[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 11 09:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with with one C-class 
flare from active region 1765 (N08W50) noted during the UT day. 
This region has a chance of producing C class flares over the 
next few days. Solar wind ranged between 340 and 410 km/s over 
the last 24 hours with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component 
ranging between -/+8nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23322221
      Cocos Island        10   23322---
      Darwin               8   23322221
      Townsville           8   23322221
      Learmonth            9   23422220
      Norfolk Island       7   23322120
      Culgoora             8   23322221
      Camden               7   23322210
      Canberra             5   12321110
      Hobart               8   23322221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   13432---
      Casey                9   23321---
      Mawson              23   5543321-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1212 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     7    Quiet
12 Jun     5    Quiet
13 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    67    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun    67    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    67    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    44600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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