[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 10 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels. Region 1765(N08W35)
is the only region of note on the visible Sun and has a chance
of producing C class flares over the next few days. Solar wind
conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 12222321
Cocos Island 5 122-----
Darwin 8 12223321
Townsville 8 22322---
Learmonth 8 22223---
Alice Springs 6 21222---
Norfolk Island 5 12221221
Culgoora 5 11222221
Gingin 6 11213---
Camden 7 12222321
Canberra 3 01122210
Hobart 7 12123320
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 11035---
Casey 8 22322---
Mawson 8 22223---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3333 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 7 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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