[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 9 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5 07/2249UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with a single C1 flare from
region 1762(S28W87). This region, which has produced M class
flares in recent days, will rotate off the visible Sun over the
next day. Region 1765(N08W22) has grown in magnitude and complexity
and may produce C class flares, with a possibility of M Class,
over the next few days. The solar wind conditions returned to
normal over the last 24 hours. A CME was observed in LASCO and
STEREO coronagraphs produced from an M5 flare that occurred at
2250UT on the 7th of June. The material is directed mainly to
the south and is unlikely to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22321001
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 6 32321001
Townsville 10 22332---
Learmonth 11 32------
Alice Springs 5 2232100-
Norfolk Island 4 22320000
Culgoora 5 22321001
Gingin - --------
Camden 5 22321001
Canberra 3 21221000
Hobart 5 22321001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 0-------
Casey 11 33321---
Mawson 23 6344300-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 42 5764 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 20 Unsettled to Active
10 Jun 12 Unsettled
11 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 7 June and
is current for 7-9 Jun. A glancing blow from a CME is anticipated
to arrive sometime in the first half of the UT day on the 9th
of June. This may cause Active conditions on arrival followed
by Unsettled. A weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to take effect from the 10th, maintaining Unsettled conditions
for the remainder of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods may be observed at high latitudes
over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods are possible in southern and
polar regions due to mild geomagnetic activity and low levels
of ionising UV flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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