[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 8 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.9 2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: The greatest flare of the last 24 hours was an M5 peaking
at 2249UT from region 1762(S28W85) which had early produced two
C class flares. No other regions flared in the period. Coronagraph
imagery is unavailable at time of writing to assess any possible
CMEs from this flare, however the location of the region is unlikely
to produce a geoeffective CME. More info will be given in tomorrows
report is coronagraph imagery suggests otherwise. The solar wind
speed is currently around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was
southward by up to -13nT until around 15UT when it swung northward.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next
3 days. A glancing blow from a CME is possible late on the 8th
or early on the 9th of June (UT). Solar activity is expected
to be low with a chance of moderate activity from region 1762
before it finally rotates off the visible Sun. Activity is expected
to be low for the following two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 34442111
Cocos Island 10 333301--
Darwin 13 34432122
Townsville 19 344432--
Learmonth 15 334331--
Alice Springs 17 344331--
Norfolk Island 19 35542111
Culgoora 17 24543211
Gingin 15 334421--
Camden 17 34543111
Canberra 14 24542100
Hobart 19 24553211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 50 457612--
Casey 11 333321--
Mawson 140 77------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 2334 3534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 20 Unsettled to Active
10 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 7 June and
is current for 7-9 Jun. Magnetic activity was Unsettled to Active
with some isolated Minor Storm periods prior till around 14UT.
After this time conditions were mostly Quiet. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for most of the 8th of June UT. A glancing blow
from a CME is expected late on the 8th or early on the 9th of
June. This many cause Active conditions on arrival followed by
Unsettled.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods may be observed at high latitudes
over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods are possible in southern and
polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 66800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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