[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 22 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
a long duration C3 flare from AR1800 (S08E22) at 0844UT the only
flare of note. Solar activity is expected to be Low 22-Jul, with
the chance of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed
declined slightly over the day as the coronal hole wind stream
continues to wane, and has now dropped below 400km/s. IMF Bz
remained stable, fluctuating within the range +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 01010111
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 4 12112112
Learmonth 4 10112221
Alice Springs 3 11102211
Norfolk Island 1 01001011
Culgoora 3 11111111
Gingin 4 11102222
Camden 3 11111211
Canberra 1 01001111
Hobart 2 11002210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 7 23212221
Mawson 16 21212255
Davis 28 13333166
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 3111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 5 Quiet
23 Jul 5 Quiet
24 Jul 5 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at most locations over
the UT day, with some isolated substorm activity at auroral latitudes
the only activity of note. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations
over the last 24 hours and HF conditions were normal. Expect
mostly normal HF conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 73800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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