[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 23 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very-Low over the last 24 hours,
with only B class X-ray flares. Solar activity is expected to
be Very-Low to Low 23-Jul, with only a small chance of an isolated
M-class flare from AR1793 (N20, W26, magnetic complexity Eso)
or AR1800 (S08, E10, magnetic complexity Axx) but most likely
just B/C flares. The solar wind speed was steady around 400km/s
over the 22-Jul UT day. IMF Bz was slightly northward, not conducive
to merging with the geomagnetic field till ~15UT and has since
been oscillating within the average range of +/-5nT, unlikely
to create significant geomagnetic activity. A CME observed 0624UT
22-Jul by SOHO spacecraft LASCO C2 sensor is mostly propagating
north-west but as it developed in the field of view after 07UT
it appears partially halo and may be geoeffective 24-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11100102
Cocos Island 2 10100102
Darwin 3 12101112
Townsville 2 12100102
Learmonth 2 11100102
Alice Springs 1 01100002
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Culgoora 2 11100112
Gingin 3 10100103
Camden 2 01100102
Canberra 1 01000002
Hobart 1 00100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001001
Casey 4 12200113
Mawson 8 21000125
Davis 8 21110115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 5 Quiet
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day at mid
and low latitudes. Isolated Active periods at auroral latitudes.
Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next day 23-Jul, in
the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards periods. A predominantly
north-west CME ~06UT 22-Jul may graze the geomagnetic field 24-Jul. Coronal
Hole CH576 is at central solar latitudes and may have rotated
into a geoeffective position on the 3rd day 25-Jul with increased
solar wind speed and geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
24 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
25 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values on average at
most locations during daylight hours over the last 24 hours with
the daily T index only slightly below the predicted monthly average.
However night-time MUFs were depressed, particularly across low
latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next two days,
with MUFs perhaps slightly below average. There may be moderate
geomagnetic activity on the 3rd day 25-Jul causing larger hourly
MUF variations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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