[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 21 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C2 flare from AR1793 (N20W01) at 0338UT. Solar activity
is expected to be Low 21-Jul, with the chance of an isolated
M-class flare. The solar wind speed declined steadily throughout
the day as the coronal hole wind stream wanes, to be just above
400km/s at the time of report. IMF Bz remained stable, fluctuating
within the range +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Cocos Island 2 2210000-
Darwin 4 32210001
Townsville 3 22110002
Learmonth 3 31110100
Alice Springs 2 2210000-
Norfolk Island 1 21000000
Culgoora 2 21101000
Gingin 2 21200000
Camden 2 21101000
Canberra 2 21100001
Hobart 2 21001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 2101100-
Casey 5 33210010
Mawson 11 53330000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17 3343 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 5 Quiet
23 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days. Some isolated
Active conditions possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations
over the last 24 hours and HF conditions were normal. Expect
mostly normal HF conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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