[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 21 09:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C2 flare from AR1793 (N20W01) at 0338UT. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low 21-Jul, with the chance of an isolated 
M-class flare. The solar wind speed declined steadily throughout 
the day as the coronal hole wind stream wanes, to be just above 
400km/s at the time of report. IMF Bz remained stable, fluctuating 
within the range +/-2nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21100000
      Cocos Island         2   2210000-
      Darwin               4   32210001
      Townsville           3   22110002
      Learmonth            3   31110100
      Alice Springs        2   2210000-
      Norfolk Island       1   21000000
      Culgoora             2   21101000
      Gingin               2   21200000
      Camden               2   21101000
      Canberra             2   21100001
      Hobart               2   21001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   2101100-
      Casey                5   33210010
      Mawson              11   53330000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   3343 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul     5    Quiet
22 Jul     5    Quiet
23 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days. Some isolated 
Active conditions possible at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available 
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values at most locations 
over the last 24 hours and HF conditions were normal. Expect 
mostly normal HF conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   215000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list