[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 14 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 event from active region 1791 (S11E46). Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed declined gradually from ~500km/s to ~400km/s. The
IMF Bz component was positive, up to 12nT, for much of the day,
but is now neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 33211122
Cocos Island 3 2--10112
Darwin 7 33210122
Townsville 8 33221222
Learmonth 8 33221122
Alice Springs 7 33211122
Norfolk Island 5 32210111
Culgoora 7 33211121
Gingin 8 33210232
Camden 6 32211121
Canberra 4 22210121
Hobart 6 23211221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 22100111
Casey 12 44222222
Mawson 30 54421256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 2332 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 11 July and
is current for 13-14 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions over the last
24 hours were mostly quiet, with an unsettled period early in
the UT day. Activity reached storm levels in Antarctica. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected for the Australian region for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible at high latitudes 14-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours, with nighttime MUF depressions at low latitudes.
Degraded HF conditions are possible in Antarctica during 14-Jul.
Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 86300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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