[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 15 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare from active region 1785 (S11W83). A CME first
observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery at 13/1112UT is not expected to
be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed has declined from
~~420km/s to ~380km/s. The IMF Bz component has been negative
for most of the day, down to around -10nT, its current level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 22254332
Cocos Island 9 12233232
Darwin 13 22244232
Townsville 16 22254332
Learmonth 19 22254343
Alice Springs 17 22254333
Norfolk Island 14 22244332
Culgoora 16 22254332
Gingin 21 22254353
Camden 17 22354332
Canberra 17 22354332
Hobart 20 22354433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 44 23466653
Casey 11 22333232
Mawson 37 54444356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 4320 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions started quiet on 14-Jul, increased
to minor storm levels before the middle of the UT day and are
now mostly unsettled. The IMF Bz component has been negative
throughout the period and remains around -10nT. This is likely
to cause further unsettled conditions on 15-Jul, with more active
conditions possible if the negative Bz persists.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible at high latitudes 15-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours, with strong nighttime enhancements at Niue
Island. Degraded HF conditions are likely in Antarctica during
15-Jul. Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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