[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 13 09:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
just a single C-class flare (C3 at 1733UT from AR1785 S11W67).
Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed was in decline and IMF relatively stable until 16UT,
when a weak shock was observed, followed by an increase in total
magnetic field, density and solar wind speed, possibly due to
the early arrival of a CME from a filament eruption on 09 July.
The IMF Bz component remains mostly northward directed at this
stage.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12212112
Cocos Island 2 111110--
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 5 222120--
Alice Springs 5 222120--
Norfolk Island 4 12211112
Culgoora 6 12222212
Gingin 4 122120--
Camden 5 22212112
Canberra 3 11112101
Hobart 5 12222112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 122220--
Casey 9 323221--
Mawson 21 454321--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25 2354 4442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 25 Active
14 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 11 July and
is current for 13-14 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were mostly quiet over the last 24 hours. Some periods
at active to minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes
early in the day. Solar wind parameters are currently elevated
due to a structure in the solar wind, however IMF Bz remains
northward so there has so far been little effect on geomagnetic
conditions. If IMF Bz remains predominantly northwards then mostly
Unsettled conditions, with isolated Active periods are expected.
If IMF Bz turns southwards for an extended period over the day,
then we can expect increased geomagnetic activity with isolated
Minor Storm periods possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible at mid and high latitudes
13-Jul and continuing at high latitudes into 14-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. Daytime
MUF enhancements were observed at equatorial latitudes along
with some mild nighttime depressions in northern Australia over
during last 24 hours. Degraded HF conditions are possible at
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations 13-Jul, continuing at high latitudes
through to 14-Jul. Elsewhere, mostly normal HF conditions are
expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 70500 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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