[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jan 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 29 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 110/60 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a
C1 flare from region 1660 (beyond the west limb). Solar activity
is expected to be very low over the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed declined slightly over the UT day to ~400km/s. The IMF
Bz component fluctuated between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22111212
Cocos Island 3 21111111
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 6 22212222
Alice Springs 4 11111212
Norfolk Island 4 32101102
Gnangara 5 22111222
Camden 3 12101211
Canberra 2 01101211
Hobart 4 12112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 02101200
Casey 15 15432222
Mawson 8 2231322-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
31 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled
to active periods in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values for the
last 24 hours, with daytime depressions in the Cocus Island region.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values for the
next 3 days. Minor depressions possible at low latitudes on 29-Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 87200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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